Written by: Iqbal Elyazar

Papua is a natural laboratory speaking loudly to us, provided we are willing to listen. At its highest peaks, the last tropical glaciers in the Western Pacific are slowly vanishing—an undeniable visual signal that regional warming is no longer just a future prediction but an unfolding crisis occurring before our eyes. The disappearance of this perennial ice is merely the opening chapter of a much larger and more concerning story: climate change is radically redrawing our health risk maps, particularly in our fight against malaria.

Signals from the Peaks and Forest Degradation

As global temperatures rise, the safe boundaries of malaria transmission are shifting. Highland regions that were once too cold for Anopheles mosquitoes to breed are now becoming vulnerable, expanding the transmission range to populations that previously lacked natural immunity. However, climate is not the sole actor in this drama. Massive deforestation, reaching approximately 189,000 hectares per year and largely driven by land conversion for industrial oil palm plantations, has systemically altered forest ecology. This habitat destruction forces more intense contact between humans and wildlife, resulting in an increased risk of zoonotic malaria, such as Plasmodium knowlesi, jumping from primates to humans.

Disasters Compounding the Health Burden

Climate change also brings extreme weather anomalies that are occurring with increasing frequency. High-intensity rainfall now more often leads to deadly flash floods and landslides, such as the 2019 tragedy that claimed over 100 lives and destroyed hundreds of homes. These disasters do not only destroy physical infrastructure; they also create new pools of water that serve as mosquito breeding sites and drastically sever community access to essential health services. The question becomes urgent: how can we achieve malaria elimination targets if the foundations of our health system are constantly battered by climate-induced disasters?

Adaptation Steps: From Reaction to Prediction

We can no longer afford to maintain strategies that are merely reactive. We need a paradigm shift through three primary strategic pillars. First, Place-Based Action, where National Adaptation Plans must be aligned with "Climate Healthy Village" (Desa Sehat Iklim) models that prioritise participatory learning. Local communities must not merely be recipients of aid; they must be involved as partners in co-designing adaptation solutions on the ground. Second, building Resilient Systems through Data Integration. Investment in climate-resilient health infrastructure must be underpinned by cross-sectoral data integration, linking environmental signals such as BMKG weather forecasts with health surveillance systems to predict case surges before they escalate into uncontrollable outbreaks.

Finally, the vision of One Papua, One System is imperative. We must unify the entire island of New Guinea under a single integrated health intelligence architecture, transcending provincial and national administrative borders. Viruses and mosquitoes do not recognise passports or boundaries; therefore, cross-border coordination between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea through a "One Island" approach is essential to ensure that interventions are synchronised and precisely targeted. Papua has immense potential to become a regional model for the Asia-Pacific in developing integrated climate-health solutions. If we can prove success in Papua, we will provide a glimmer of hope for other endemic regions worldwide.

This material was presented during Session 6: Climate, Environmental Change and Vector-Borne Diseases at the APMEN Joint Working Groups Meeting, 28 April 2026, in Bangkok, Thailand.

Download the full presentation material via the following link:Climate Adaptations: Lessons from Papua